BND Scope: May – Issue 1 – The U.S. Economy in the Age of Uncertainty: Calm Before the Storm or the Dawn of New Opportunities?

Welcome to BND Scope, the bi-weekly newsletter of BND Consulting. Every two weeks, we aim to share with you key developments in the American economy, how to ensure your financial security for the future, and valuable insights and commentary on where the world is headed. We hope you enjoy reading our newsletter, written in a conversational tone, not too long, and sent out on the weekends so you can also read it over the weekend.

Developments in the U.S. economy and trade policies in the last weeks of April triggered notable activity both domestically and globally. These winds of change in major economies may give rise to new equilibriums across many areas, from investment decisions to consumer habits. Let’s evaluate the main highlights together.

The IMF has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 1.8%. This revision signals that rising trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties are beginning to put pressure on the economy. The slowing momentum of the U.S. economy appears likely to affect not only domestic markets but also the global investment environment.

This turbulence has also been felt on the consumer side. According to a Gallup poll, only 29% of Americans believe the stock market will rise in the next six months. This indicates a significant dent in market confidence.

Amidst all these negative developments, good news came from the energy markets. For the first time, the U.S. has succeeded in raising the share of clean energy sources in electricity generation to over 51%. This historic achievement indicates that the energy transition is accelerating and that new doors of opportunity are opening for investors.

37%

Americans’ Confidence in President Trump’s Economic Management

The Consumer Dilemma: Prices Rising, Confidence Falling

Sharp Decline in Economic Expectations

Rising trade tariffs are impacting not just consumer expectations but also corporate strategies. Giants like Shein, Target, and Ford are preparing to raise prices under cost pressure. These moves could increase inflationary pressures and reduce consumer spending.

At the same time, trust in general economic management in the country has also been shaken. A Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that only 37% of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of the economy. In January, this figure was 42%.

Shadows of Recession and Stagflation

Over the past three months, U.S. consumer confidence has dropped by 32%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have reached their highest level since 1981. Experts agree that the risk of recession has increased further.

In parallel, business activity in the U.S. is also declining. In April, it fell to its lowest level in the past 16 months. According to S&P Global data, companies’ price-based strategies are raising concerns about stagflation: an economy that is not growing but where prices are rising.

Clean Energy: A Promising Front

President Trump has declared the high tariffs he implemented a “complete victory.” However, according to economists, these moves could lead to price increases and market volatility. For investors, this period presents both risks and new opportunities.

On the trade diplomacy front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that a deal with India could be signed soon. This development could open the door to a new era in global trade.

You can listen to the comments of the COO of China Beige Book International to understand the impact of tariffs on China from a reverse perspective.

Trade Wars: Victory or Uncertainty?

That brings us to the end of this issue. Together, we've tried to make sense of the turbulence in the U.S. economy. In our next edition, we'll continue to explore current developments with a strategic perspective. Until then, keep your financial goals sharp and stay tuned for emerging opportunities. See you soon.

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