BND Scope: Issue 12 - Finding Direction in a Data Blackout

This week, the classic “first Friday” routine in the U.S. was disrupted. Normally, as the clock strikes 8:30 a.m. ET, the jobs report flashes across our screens and we dive into the details over fresh coffee. But this time, there was nothing. The reason: the federal government shutdown.

The shutdown suspended the September employment report, plunging the economic landscape into something everyone dislikes — data blackout.

Interestingly, the data itself has already been collected. According to two former Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioners, the report is “ready for release,” but it can’t be published while the government remains closed.

What Does “Shutdown” Actually Mean?

In the United States, when Congress fails to pass the annual budget on time, the federal government must halt all “non-essential” spending. This means most agencies temporarily suspend operations. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees are placed on furlough (unpaid leave), while only critical services — public safety, healthcare, energy, and air traffic control — continue.

That is precisely what’s happening now. As budget negotiations intensified, the term RIF (Reduction in Force — permanent layoffs) resurfaced. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) instructed agencies to “keep furlough plans ready and evaluate RIF options if necessary.” While mandatory services such as Social Security, Medicare, border control, and air traffic remain operational, many other departments are bracing for deeper cuts.

When the Senate failed to pass a short-term funding bill, the OMB announced that “agencies should implement their standard shutdown procedures.” This has affected the entire data flow — most agencies are operating in “essential only” mode. In this period when economic indicators have gone silent, we’ve gathered key market data for you.

As the shutdown drags on, its economic costs continue to rise. Delayed paychecks for federal workers, halted data production, extended processing times, and uncertainty in private-sector contracts are weighing on the economy. Analysts estimate a weekly GDP loss of $7 to $15 billion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly warned that the shutdown poses a “risk to growth.” While the impact of past shutdowns was later offset to some extent, the halt in data flow is creating a serious void — particularly at a time when policymakers rely heavily on timely data.

Meanwhile, another debate is heating up: migration dynamics. According to Deutsche Bank, the sharp decline in immigration could act as a “negative supply shock,” potentially pressuring the wage–inflation balance if labor-force growth slows.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs Research argues that if net migration normalizes slightly below pre-pandemic levels, the impact on growth should remain limited. However, sectors like agriculture and construction could still face short-term price pressures due to sudden labor shortages.

Private-sector data from ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.) shows a loss of 32,000 jobs in September. Construction, manufacturing, and finance recorded declines, while healthcare, education, and IT added jobs. For now, the unemployment rate sits at 4.3%, still historically low.

Public sentiment remains mixed. A CBS News / YouGov survey shows that most Americans view artificial intelligence as a force that could impact society even more profoundly than the Internet itself, though optimism about its effect on jobs remains cautious.

In summary, the U.S. economy is navigating a two-week period without official data — a time defined by debates over how long the shutdown will last, how slowing immigration and shifting employment will play out, and how artificial intelligence may reshape labor demand. All these discussions are likely to continue dominating the coming weeks. 

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Overall Assessment

Although the U.S. economy has entered a temporary “data-less” phase, markets have shown resilience rather than panic. The shutdown may stem from political gridlock in Washington, but its ripple effects extend beyond budgets — touching confidence, visibility, and decision-making.

The pause in data releases blurs the instruments used to gauge the economy’s pulse, testing the Fed’s commitment to “data-driven” policy. Yet, strong employment foundations, steady consumer spending, and AI-fueled investment momentum suggest the economy is far from derailed.

This moment presents a dual narrative: in the short term, uncertainty breeds caution; in the medium term, digital transformation, energy transition, and capital flows continue to support growth potential. For investors, this is a period to tune out the noise and focus on fundamentals.

In short, the U.S. economy is moving through a dimly lit tunnel — but the engines are still running. When the data returns, the picture will come back into focus — and for those who stay patient, new opportunities may appear on the horizon.

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Markets Break Records Despite the Shutdown

In the first week of October, U.S. markets remained remarkably strong despite the ongoing shutdown. As of October 3, 2025, the S&P 500 reached a record 6,715.79, while the Dow Jones rose 0.5% to 46,758.28. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.3% to 22,780.51, and the Russell 2000 — representing small-cap stocks — gained 0.7% for the week.

On a weekly basis, momentum remained positive: the S&P 500 and Dow each gained 1.1%, the Nasdaq 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 1.7%. In short, even amid shutdown headlines, investor risk appetite stayed alive.

AI Remains the Growth Engine

At the heart of this optimism lies artificial intelligence. OpenAI finalized a $6.6 billion employee share sale, boosting its valuation to $500 billion, up sharply from $300 billion just months earlier. The deal drew major investors including Thrive Capital, SoftBank, Dragoneer, Abu Dhabi’s MGX Fund, and T. Rowe Price. The news lifted sentiment across tech stocks, particularly Broadcom, Micron, and TSMC, which all ended the week higher.

Shutdown Pushes Investors Toward Safe Havens

The bond market reflected more caution. As uncertainty surrounding the shutdown grew, U.S. Treasury yields declined, signaling a modest flight to safety. The U.S. dollar fluctuated through the week, closing slightly weaker.

In commodities, oil prices dipped amid supply–demand concerns, while gold rose as investors sought stability. Amid rising volatility, markets balanced weakness in energy with gains in precious metals.

On the employment side, ADP data’s report of 32,000 job losses underscored the importance of private indicators while official statistics remain delayed. For now, these private datasets are serving as the market’s primary compass.

Globally, the picture remained calm. IMF (International Monetary Fund) data show the dollar’s share in global reserves moving only marginally in nominal terms; when adjusted for currency effects, no significant decline is visible. The much-discussed “de-dollarization” trend remains more narrative than fact for now.

At BND Consulting, we’re here to support your investment decisions with insight, clarity, and strategy. Reach out to us any time—we’re ready when you are.

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