BND Scope: Issue 13 - Flight to Safety Sends Gold to Record Highs

With parts of the government shut, several official releases were put on hold. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the September CPI would be published on October 24; that one-off release stays on the calendar because it’s required for Social Security’s COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment). That limits markets’ ability to “navigate by data” and makes policymakers’ commentary even more important.

Partial gaps were filled by sentiment: on October 10, the Michigan Index printed 55.0—virtually unchanged versus September. Conversations suggest the shutdown hasn’t yet materially altered consumer perceptions. Still, elevated prices and labor concerns remain front and center. Among the “early warnings,” the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index swung sharply to –12.8 on October 16, reversing September’s +23.2; the same report showed price gauges re-accelerating. For that region, we read simultaneous pressure on demand/revenues and renewed upside risk in input costs in the near term

President Musalem: “I Could Vote for a Cut”

Meanwhile, on October 17, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that if inflation risks stay contained, he is inclined to vote for a rate cut at month-end. In a period of limited official data, that tone points to a Fed stance that is “cautious yet supportive.”

In short: The data gap heightens sensitivity to messaging. While the Fed’s language hints at a “measured cut,” tariff-related, temporary price pressures and signs of softer production need to be read together. Near term, it’s prudent to stay cautious until the data flow returns.

You can watch St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem’s remarks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy here:

Closing

Even with the data flow disrupted, prices spoke clearly: banking fragilities kept acting as a trigger, gold strengthened its safe-haven role, oil caught its breath, and crypto swung widely with high sensitivity to headlines. The Fed’s “cautious easing” signal is running alongside tariff-driven cost pressures; meanwhile, the onshoring of production and chip/AI capacity in the U.S. is redrawing the medium-term opportunity map. The September CPI on October 24 and the end-October FOMC will clarify direction; until then, keep decisions anchored to data and positions disciplined with diversification and liquidity. If you are planning U.S. market entry—via sales, incorporation, or partnerships—the focus is the same: sequence state-level incentives, supply-chain fit, and regulatory thresholds correctly. If you’d like to pressure-test your strategy, BND is here to help—together we’ll craft a clear, actionable roadmap. (This content is not investment advice.)

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In the latter half of the week, bank-related worries rippled through markets. On October 16, U.S. regional banks came under pressure; by October 17, European shares fell with banks leading, and the Stoxx 600 banks index slipped about 3%. The catalyst: problematic credit headlines at some U.S. regionals. The same day, news broke of a class action in the U.S. alleging that major banks “coordinated” on the prime rate, adding a new uncertainty with claims stretching back decades.

The bid for safety pushed gold to all-time highs: on October 17, spot broke above $4,300/oz, marking the strongest weekly performance since 2008. Robust central-bank buying, geopolitical/economic jitters, and expectations of rate cuts fueled the move. On the other side of the commodities ledger, oil prices ended the week modestly lower; supply/stock dynamics and hints of geopolitical easing weighed. Crypto saw a broad late-week pullback; as of October 17, Bitcoin gave back a portion of recent gains. The amplitude was amplified by risk-off flows and breaks of technical levels.

Banking headlines can harden price action when they touch balance-sheet quality and private-credit concerns. In such stretches, “shock absorbers” (cash, short-duration bonds, gold, etc.) reclaim a role, and avoiding concentration in any single instrument is critical. Crypto markets, meanwhile, tend to react with high beta to news—bigger swings, both ways.

At BND Consulting, we’re here to support your investment decisions with insight, clarity, and strategy. Reach out to us any time—we’re ready when you are.

We’ve just closed out two weeks in which the data calendar stuttered, banking headlines quickly dented risk appetite, and gold climbed to a new peak—while production and the chip ecosystem continued to pivot toward the United States. The federal government shutdown’s partial impact is clear; if it persists, the path forward gets harder to gauge.

Quiet Week, Key Clues

Gold Record, Stumble in Crypto, Pause in Oil

Faster U.S. Chip and AI Investments

Trade heated up again on October 17. WTO Director-General Okonjo-Iweala reiterated that prolonged U.S.–China tension risks lasting damage to global growth and urged de-escalation. The same day, Swiss Economy Minister Parmelin said talks in Washington showed no meaningful progress on the 39% tariff applied to Swiss goods. On the ground, Canton Fair takeaways pointed to many Chinese exporters treating the U.S. as “volatile and unpredictable,” accelerating order and channel diversification.

On tech, where you build and how much compute you can deploy continue to move quickly. On October 16, TSMC posted a record quarter on AI-chip demand; the following day, the Nvidia–TSMC partnership showcased the first U.S.-made Blackwell wafer, signaling a stepwise onshoring of advanced manufacturing. On October 13, OpenAI announced a custom-chip design and multiyear capacity deal with Broadcom—pointing to a sustained investment cycle across power, cooling, and interconnects in data-center infrastructure.

Tariff and regulatory risk in trade stays elevated as supply chains re-locate. In the U.S., semiconductors, advanced packaging, power electronics, thermal management, industrial automation, and data-center infrastructure (power, cooling, racks/cabling) are forming a broad supporting ecosystem. For Turkish manufacturers with real production muscle, certification and supply-chain integration can open doors—yet market and client diversification remains essential given trade volatility.