BND Scope: Issue 17 - Black Friday Led to Record-Breaking Spending

Black Friday 2025 was, on the surface, a record year. Adobe Analytics estimates that Americans spent $11.8 billion online on 29 November alone, up a little over 9% from last year.

At first glance, that might sound like “the consumer is in great shape.” But the underlying pattern is more complex. Bank of America’s card data show that a large share of the increase in spending is coming from middle-upper and upper income households, while the lowest income group is seeing much more limited growth in per-person spending. In other words, the holiday shopping boom is not evenly spread.

A key detail here is the role of “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) services. BNPL is a system where you buy something today and split the payment into instalments over time, usually through a fintech platform rather than a traditional credit card. Barron’s, using Adobe’s numbers, highlights that BNPL purchases on Black Friday alone were close to $750 million, and BNPL volumes over the entire holiday season could exceed $20 billion.

That suggests a growing share of consumers — particularly those under more pressure — are using BNPL to stretch their budgets and manage cash-flow constraints, not because they suddenly feel wealthier. It’s a way to keep up spending while incomes and savings are under strain.

Sentiment data tell a similar story. An AP–NORC poll finds that around 90% of Americans say their grocery bills, and roughly two-thirds say their utility costs and holiday gifts, are noticeably more expensive than a year ago. Nearly half report delaying big-ticket purchases, cutting back on gifts, or relying more on instalment options like BNPL.

In short, cash registers are ringing and the dollar volumes look strong, but the underlying reality is that much of this is driven either by higher-income households or by various forms of borrowing and deferred payments. For many middle- and lower-income families, holiday spending is happening under clear financial stress.

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For most of the past two years, the US labour market was the strongest pillar of the expansion: modest layoffs, steady wage gains, and historically low unemployment. The latest numbers, however, suggest that this pillar is starting to lose some of its strength.

According to the November 2025 ADP National Employment Report, the US private sector lost 32,000 jobs on net. Markets had expected a small increase, so this was a clear negative surprise. ADP notes that job creation has been close to flat in the second half of the year, with particular weakness in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, information, and some professional services.

At the same time, annual wage growth in the ADP data is still running at about 4.4%. That combination — slower hiring but relatively firm wages — suggests that companies are reluctant to cut pay outright, but are becoming more cautious about expanding their headcount. It is a shift from “we are hiring, but carefully” towards “we are keeping what we have and thinking twice before adding more.”

The picture in services is somewhat more positive. The ISM Services Index remained above the 50 mark in November, which indicates expansion rather than contraction. Out of 18 service industries surveyed, 12 reported growth, with new orders and business activity showing modest improvement. However, respondents repeatedly mention tariffs and the recent government shutdown as sources of uncertainty that are leading clients to delay decisions and keep orders smaller or shorter-term.

Taken together, the signals are clear enough: the US labour market is no longer the unquestioned “strong point” of the economy. We are not seeing a collapse, but the pace of job creation is slowing, and some sectors are beginning to post outright net job losses. For an economy so dependent on consumer spending, that is a trend worth watching closely.

At BND Consulting, we will continue to interpret these fragile balances — and the potential surprises in both directions — with a framework that supports more informed investment decisions. As always, we are available for deeper, sector-specific analysis tailored to your needs.

From late November to mid-December, the main data points still suggest “growth, not recession” in the US. But when you look more closely, you see three parallel stories:

spending that remains strong but uneven across income groups,

a labour market that is no longer as tight as it was a few months ago,

and a growth narrative that increasingly leans on policy moves and new capital-attraction tools like the Gold Card program.

In this issue, we keep the Fed in the background and focus instead on consumer behaviour, the jobs market, affordability, and how the new Gold Card immigration program ties into the economic picture.

Record Black Friday: Strong Spending, Tight Household Budgets

Jobs: Slowing Momentum Beneath the Surface

Prices, Affordability and the Aftermath of the Shutdown

Inflation today is best described as a two-layer picture. On one layer, the official indicators show progress. One of the Fed’s key reference points, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is running at around 2.8% year-on-year, which is not dramatically far from the 2% target on paper.

On the other layer, what households actually feel is the price level. Food, rents, insurance, electricity and other essentials are now anchored at a much higher “new normal” compared with a few years ago. Even as the rate of inflation comes down, those prices don’t revert to their old levels; they simply rise more slowly from here. That is why the public debate in the US has shifted from “inflation” in the narrow sense to “affordability” — can people realistically cover their core expenses and still have room for savings or discretionary spending?

On the fiscal side, the numbers also invite a closer look. The US federal government posted a $173 billion budget deficit in November 2025, roughly half of the shortfall recorded in the same month last year. Part of that improvement reflects higher revenues, including strong customs duties from tariffs. But another part likely reflects timing effects: after a 43-day government shutdown, some payments were simply pushed into later months. In other words, not all of the apparent drop in spending is a permanent cut; some of it may just be delayed outflows that will show up in future data.

The shutdown has also created significant gaps in economic statistics. Key reports on employment, inflation and growth were delayed for weeks; now they are starting to arrive in a compressed wave, which can distort the near-term picture. Markets are waiting to see whether this backlog of data will confirm a gradual slowdown story or point to something sharper.

Against this backdrop, the Fed delivered another 25-basis-point rate cut on 10 December, bringing the federal funds rate to around 3.6%, its third reduction this year. But unlike earlier in the year, this move came with visible disagreement inside the Fed. Some members argue that, with inflation still above target and data incomplete after the shutdown, the central bank should pause and wait for a clearer view. Others are more concerned about the softening labour market and want to prevent a sharper downturn.

For investors, the takeaway is that the period of rapid, predictable rate cuts may be over. Policy is likely to become more data-dependent and cautious from here, while the lived experience of households — especially around rents, food, insurance and credit costs — remains under pressure even as headline inflation cools.

Gold Card: Will It Attract Capital – or Drive It Away?

One of the most talked-about policy moves in this period is the Trump administration’s launch of the “Gold Card” immigration program.

Under the new scheme, as reported by the Associated Press, individual foreign applicants can obtain a fast-track route to US residency — and eventually citizenship — by investing at least $1 million each. For corporate-sponsored applicants, the bar is $2 million per person. In effect, this is a more aggressive, streamlined successor to the old EB-5 investor visa, but with fewer explicit requirements around job creation and regional development.

From an economic standpoint, the White House and the Department of Commerce frame Gold Card as a way to attract additional billions of dollars in capital inflows each year, and to raise the average income level of incoming migrants. Some internal projections suggest that, if fully utilised, the program could generate somewhere in the range of $8–10 billion of fresh investment annually — a non-trivial number, even in a $27 trillion economy.

However, there are two important caveats:

• Legal and political risk. Analysts at Axios and other outlets point out that Gold Card is built through executive authority rather than a new law passed by Congress. That means a future administration could modify or cancel it relatively quickly. In that scenario, investors who have already wired $1 million or more may find it hard to recover their funds or secure their status, creating the potential for complex legal disputes.

• System design. Because the program does not fundamentally reform the underlying immigration system — including country caps and backlogs — it may not deliver the same “fast track” for all nationalities. In particular, applicants from high-demand countries like India could still face long waits for permanent status, despite the high price tag.

In this sense, Gold Card is both a signal and a test. It signals that the US is willing to use immigration policy more explicitly as a tool to attract capital. But it also tests how far investors are willing to go in a program whose legal foundations and long-term continuity are not fully settled.

Conclusion

Looking at the late-November to mid-December snapshot, the US economy is still growing — but the quality and distribution of that growth matter more than ever. Holiday spending is breaking records, yet a large share of that activity is driven by higher-income households and by various forms of borrowing or deferred payment. The labour market is no longer as strong as it was earlier in the year; ADP data show a clear slowdown in hiring and the first signs of net job losses in some sectors.

Official inflation measures are drifting lower, but the higher price level in key items like rent, food, insurance and credit continues to weigh on household budgets and on the political conversation. The Fed has cut rates again, but internal disagreements highlight how narrow the margin is between supporting growth and risking a renewed flare-up in inflation.

At the same time, tools like the Gold Card program aim to bring in additional capital from abroad, but do so in ways that raise questions about legal stability and fairness within the broader immigration system.

From a BND Scope perspective, this environment calls for moving beyond the simple question “Is the economy growing?” to a more nuanced one: “Who is benefiting from this growth, and how sustainable is it?” When reading consumption data, it is essential to consider the role of debt and income distribution; when evaluating new immigration-investment programs, both the legal framework and the medium- to long-term sustainability need to be part of the analysis.