BND Scope: Issue 20 - Markets Beyond the Data: Confidence, Policy, and the Return of the “Sell America” Debate

The key theme shaping this week’s agenda was the uncertainty created by tariff threats directed at Europe via Greenland. Markets did not interpret this merely as “will the cost of goods coming from Europe increase?”; the real concern was whether Washington would continue to keep tariff threats toward Europe on the table as a bargaining tool, and whether it might create a trade environment in which companies are unable to plan ahead due to frequently changing rules. The weakening of the dollar and the simultaneous sell-off in both bonds and equities on the same day demonstrate how quickly risk aversion can spread. While retaliation options are being discussed in Europe, the economic relationship between the U.S. and Europe goes far beyond trade in products such as automobiles, machinery, and food. U.S. companies generate substantial revenues in Europe (particularly in services such as technology, finance, insurance, and consulting), and European funds also hold significant positions in U.S. assets such as equities and bonds. If tensions spill over into these areas, the issue will no longer be limited to customs duties; it could create a broader economic impact through corporate profitability and the U.S. government’s borrowing costs. This does not mean “a recession tomorrow,” but in an environment where companies postpone investment plans and supply chains operate more cautiously, the risk of a natural slowdown in growth increases.

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Updated growth data show that the U.S. economy grew faster than expected during the summer months of 2025; consumption and corporate investment, in particular, remained strong. However, markets no longer read such data on their own as a sign that “everything is fine.” At the same time, another concern is growing: public debt relative to national income is high, the government’s interest burden is increasing, and questions are being raised about how comfortably Washington could act in the event of a shock. When debates about institutions — especially how independently decisions are made and how predictable the rules are — are added to this picture, the issue moves beyond whether “today’s data is good or bad.” What markets are really focusing on is what kind of policy path will be drawn on top of this data and how consistent that path will be. This is why, even when growth appears strong, risk perception can rise and volatility can increase.

Markets in the U.S. are no longer making decisions solely based on data; beyond the data itself, political rhetoric, alliance dynamics, and trust in institutions are increasingly being priced in. For this very reason, within the same week we can witness both a strong upward growth revision and the renewed emergence of the “Sell America” narrative.

Trade Tensions Return via the Transatlantic Front

Growth Revisions, Debt, and Credit Risk

Investment Direction: AI Infrastructure, Logistics, and Stable Sectors

The IMF’s upward revision to its growth forecast shows that there is not a single pessimistic scenario for the global economy as we head into 2026; technology, and particularly artificial intelligence investments, continue to keep spending alive across many sectors. China meeting its growth target does not completely overturn the picture either, but the fact that growth is being driven largely by exports is an important warning: domestic consumption is weak, the real estate sector is fragile, and this structure can be shaken more easily when trade tensions increase. In this environment, corporate developments provide a clear answer to the question, “who is investing in what amid this uncertainty?” Applied Digital’s launch of a massive AI campus with a capacity of 430 MW illustrates that competition is no longer limited to software and chips, but is increasingly about access to electricity, cooling capacity, and the speed of facility development. The same uncertainty is also increasing “cost and speed” pressures in retail and logistics; USPS opening its door-to-door delivery network to more companies through a tender-based system is therefore significant, as it offers firms a new option to maintain delivery speed while reducing distribution costs. On the more defensive investment side, CPP Investments’ move toward outpatient healthcare buildings shows that, during volatile periods, capital continues to shift toward areas with rental-income-based and more stable demand. When the growing question marks in the private credit market are added to this picture, the investment climate for 2026 becomes clearer: opportunities exist, but not everyone is running to the same place; capital is more selective, and “where risk is accumulating” is being monitored more carefully.

Conclusion

The essence of this week is clear: even when growth figures look strong, what increasingly determines the market is “confidence and predictability.” Tariff rhetoric on the European front demonstrated how quickly this can be priced in; the weakening of the dollar and risk-off moves abruptly shifted the focus from data flow to policy language. Nevertheless, when looking at investments, the picture is not uniform: investments continue in areas such as AI infrastructure, logistics capacity, and healthcare. As BND Scope, we will continue to closely monitor the shifting dynamics of the U.S. and global economy and bring together, in a clear and accessible framework, the issues that may influence investment decisions.